The scale of hidden dollar debt around the world is huge. No less than $65 trillion in unrecorded dollar debt circulates across the global financial system in non-U.S. banks and shadow banks. To put in perspective, global GDP sits at $104 trillion. This dollar debt is in the form of foreign-exchange swaps, which have exploded over the last decade due to years of monetary easing and ultra-low interest rates, as investors searched for higher yields. Today, unrecorded debt from these foreign-exchange swaps is worth more than double the dollar debt officially recorded on balance sheets across these institutions. Based on analysis from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the above infographic charts the rise in hidden dollar debt across non-U.S. financial institutions and examines the wider implications of its growth.
Dollar Debt: A Beginners Guide
To start, we will briefly look at the role of foreign-exchange (forex) swaps in the global economy. The forex market is the largest in the world by a long stretch, with trillions traded daily. Some of the key players that use foreign-exchange swaps are:
Corporations Financial institutions Central banks
To understand forex swaps is to look at the role of currency risk. As we have seen in 2022, the U.S. dollar has been on a tear. When this happens, it hurts company earnings that generate revenue across borders. That’s because they earn revenue in foreign currencies (which have likely declined in value against the dollar) but end up converting earnings to U.S. dollars. In order to reduce currency risk, market participants will buy forex swaps. Here, two parties agree to exchange one currency for another. In short, this helps protect the company from unfavorable foreign exchange rates. What’s more, due to accounting rules, forex swaps are often unrecorded on balance sheets, and as a result are quite opaque.
A Mountain of Debt
Since 2008, the value of this opaque, unrecorded dollar debt has nearly doubled.
*As of June 30, 2022
Driving its rise in part was an era of rock-bottom interest rates globally. As investors sought out higher returns, they took on greater leverage—and forex swaps are one example of this.
Now, as interest rates have been rising, forex swaps have increased amid higher market volatility as investors look to hedge currency risk. This appears in both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. shadow banks, which are unregulated financial intermediaries.
Overall, the value of unrecorded debt is staggering. An estimated $39 trillion is held by non-U.S. banks along with $26 trillion in overseas shadow banks around the world.
Past Case Studies
Why does the massive growth in dollar debt present risks? During the market crashes of 2008 and 2020, forex swaps faced a funding squeeze. To borrow U.S. dollars, market participants had to pay high rates. A lot of this hinged on the impact of extreme volatility on these swaps, putting pressure on funding rates. Here are two examples of how volatility can heighten risk in the forex market:
Exchange-rate volatility: Sharp swings in USD can spur a liquidity crunch U.S. interest-rate volatility: Sudden rate fluctuations can mean much higher costs for these trades
In both cases, the U.S. central bank had to step in to provide liquidity in the market and prevent dollar shortages. This was done through pumping cash into the system and creating swap lines with other non-U.S. banks such as the Bank of Canada or the Bank of Japan. These were designed to protect from declining currency values and a liquidity crunch.
Dollar Debt: The Wider Implications
The risk from growing dollar debt and these swap lines arises when a non-U.S. bank or shadow bank may not be able to hold up their end of the agreement. In fact, on a daily basis, there is an estimated $2.2 trillion in forex swaps exposed to settlement risk. Given its vast scale, this dollar debt could have greater systemic spillover effects. If participants fail to pay it could undermine financial market stability. Because demand for U.S. dollars increases during market uncertainty, a worsening economic climate could potentially expose the forex market to more vulnerabilities. on In a highly volatile and difficult year for many currencies and equities, the U.S. dollar has been a safe haven for investors. The greenback has provided exceptional stability, with almost every currency around the world declining against the U.S. dollar in 2022. This graphic visualizes almost 50 years of the Dollar Index’s returns along with the decline of major currencies against the U.S. dollar in the past two years using price data from TradingView.
U.S. Dollar and Major Currencies’ Returns in 2022
As shown in the graphic above, the past two years have seen nearly every major currency lose value against the U.S. dollar. One of the currencies hit hardest is the euro, which briefly fell below parity (meaning the euro was worth less than one U.S. dollar) in September and October of 2022, before recovering with a 5.3% rally in November. 2022 YTD Returns as of December 14th 2022. (Source: TradingView) However, the Japanese yen was the major currency hit hardest, having fallen more than 25% since the start of 2021. At the yen’s lowest point this year in October, the currency breached 24-year lows, resulting in the Bank of Japan intervening with $42.8 billion to support the country’s falling currency. The Swiss franc and Canadian dollar have been the most resilient major currencies against the U.S. dollar since 2021, largely due to the financial and political stability of those nations. Along with this, Canada has benefitted from surging crude oil prices in 2022, exporting the majority of its crude oil across its southern border to America.
Three Reasons for the U.S. Dollar’s Strength in 2022
A variety of factors have contributed to the U.S. dollar’s strength in 2022. The rapid raising of interest rates by the Federal Reserve and tightening of their balance sheet has resulted in U.S. dollars becoming a more scarce and valuable yield-bearing asset. As interest rates have risen, so have yields for savings accounts and fixed-income securities like U.S. treasuries, making them a more attractive alternative for investors. At the same time, falling equity prices (especially in the technology sector) only further incentivized investors to pull out of riskier equity markets into the safety of the dollar. Lastly, compared to many other global economies, the U.S. economy has remained resilient with the fewest risks on its horizon. Europe continues to face an ongoing energy crunch with the Russia-Ukraine conflict nearby, while China’s zero-COVID policies have hampered the country’s manufacturing sector, as well as other industries.
How Will Currencies Fare in 2023?
While the U.S. dollar has surged for much of 2022, its rally has started losing steam in the final months of the year. In September of 2022 the Dollar Index was up 20% on the year reaching a high of 114.8, but has since retreated and given back more than half its gains for this year so far. Investors around the world will be watching closely to see if the U.S. dollar’s rise will continue, or if this end-of-year reversal will carry through and provide major currencies some relief going into 2023.
